அது மீண்டும் அந்த நேரம் - இரவுகளில் நீண்ட உள்ளன, விமான குளிர்ந்துமிருக்கும், ஆனால் விரைவில் வானொலி வாழ்வில் நீக்கம் மற்றும் எங்கள் காதுகளுக்கு ஆஸ்திரேலிய கோடை ஒலிகள் கொண்டு வரும். இங்கிலாந்து வெற்றியின் மூலம் முந்தைய மூடிமறைக்க இருந்து திரும்பி வரும் (அவர்கள் செய்தது போல் 2010-11, அல்லது ஆஸ்திரேலியா ஒரு நிறைவுக்கு வரும் 3Rd இல் மூடிமறைக்க 4 தொடர். நான் ஒரு மணி பந்தய அதை டிராவில் இருக்க முடியாது!
I think this is the hardest to predict Ashes series this millennium — both sides have a decent number of quality bowlers, மற்றும் சமமாக பகிர்ந்து 4 of the best batsmen in the game. Both sides also have a recent history of middle order collapse, and a selection of match results that vary from brilliant to truly pathetic. It seems like it might be a case of “who cracks first”.
If England get on top, அவர்கள் செய்தது போல் 2010, the Aussie crowds and press will get at the green-team with a vigour only normally seen in the British press when the footballers fail to materialise. சமமாக, if Australia get on top then England have a tendency to totally implode as they did in the 2 visits down under either side of their 2010 வெற்றி.
Overall the odds must be in the Australian’s favour, something the bookies agree with. They have home-soil advantage and will no doubt prepare pitches that offer pace and seam with as little swing as possible. Fair play to them — I’ve no doubt England will prepare swinging pitches in return the next time our Aussie friends are over here. பென் ஸ்டோக்ஸ் விவகாரம் (1) has also damaged England’s preparations, and there are some injury problems which could prove significant too.
I think the margins between the teams are quite small, and things beyond human control (எ.கா. டாஸ், the weather) could prove crucial. நான் ஒரு கும்பலில் மேல் பெறும் முறை அவர்கள் அங்கே இருக்கும் ஒரு நல்ல வாய்ப்பு இருக்கிறது என்று நினைக்கிறேன். The difference between a 3–1 victory as in 2010, and a 5–0 defeat, could actually be quite small. If England come away with a draw, அவர்கள் ஆஷஸ் தக்க வைத்துக் கொள்ளும். This will rightly be regarded as pretty much as good as victory and England will rightly get all the plaudits. Planning for victory shouldn’t be the hardest job in the world, so instead — how about we think beforehand about what might happen in the event of defeat.
Let’s imagine the Aussies get a bit of run of the ball, அது நன்கு பயன்படுத்திக் செய்ய, and England sink to defeat in the first couple of test matches. Realistically it is unlikely that they could come back from 2–0 down, so the remaining matches wouldn’t really tell us a great deal new. Is there a difference between leaving having lost by 3 அல்லது 4 அணி அப்படியே கொண்டு, and leaving having lost 5–0 with the captain in doubt, a leading bowler gone, மற்றும் 2 of the best batsman gone. I ask because that is what happened in 2013–14, when questions were left hanging over Captain Cook, Jonathan Trott quit international cricket, கேபி வெளியே தள்ளி வைக்கப்பட்டது, மற்றும் கிரேம் ஸ்வான் நடுப்பகுதியில் சுற்றுப்பயணம் விட்டு. In other words massive mismanagement had managed to snatch a much greater defeat from the jaws of a brief embarrassment. Just imagine the current England team but with KP, Trott and Swann still available for selection — a world number 1 பக்க நிச்சயமாக?
Instead we have a younger less experienced team, but with plenty of quality and plenty of potential. It is essential to the future of the team that such massive failures of management are not repeated on this tour. There is no dominant country in test cricket at present, with Australia, இங்கிலாந்து, இந்தியா, Pakistan and South Africa all capable of being dominant and ruthless, and also all capable of being very poor too. There is nothing to separate these 5 பக்கங்களிலும். All of them would be favourites in home conditions to beat all of the others. This is particularly so in England’s case, உடன் 2 of the best swing bowlers in the history of the game able to win home matches with regularity, even when the batsmen are struggling.
அதனால், let’s hope the England management have learned from previous mistakes, அதைத் தோற்கடிக்கவும் ஏற்பட்டால், find ways to keep the team together, lift the great talent we have, and bring the England team home ready to continue building towards the future. If they can’t do that, என்ன சரியாக அவர்கள் அணி செய்ய செய்ய?
(1) A footnote on the Ben Stokes affair. This is a worrying sign that England management haven’t learned from the past. Ask yourself this — if it was the other way around and a key Aussie player had assaulted someone in a bar would the Aussies have dropped that player? Or would they have downplayed it, picked the guy anyway, and even gone on to make him vice captain? நீங்கள் பதில் பற்றி ஏதேனும் சந்தேகம் இருந்தால் தான் ஜோ ரூட் கேட்க! It seems to me that England management are first and foremost interested in avoiding catching any flack from the media, rather than acting in the right way. Successful management publicly supports their player. What is said in private is no doubt very different. There isn’t even any sign of management taking a grain of responsibility, despite repeated failures to manage players effectively, be it with mental health (மார்க்கஸ் ட்ரெஸ்கோதிக் ப, டிராட்), team relations (ஸ்வான், கேபி), or responsible behaviour (Flintoff in pedalo-gate, Root getting punched in walkabout, players urinating on the pitch, இப்போது டெல்லியில் அவுட் ஸ்டோக்ஸ்).
“இளஞ்சிவப்பு பந்து சிவப்பு / பச்சை குறைபாடுள்ள பார்வையில் சாம்பல் / நீல நிறத்தில் தோன்றும், அதன் தீவிரத்தை பொறுத்து. வண்ண குருட்டுத்தன்மையுடன் ஒரு உருவகப்படுத்துதல் செய்தேன்…”